Trump’s Comments on Powell’s Job Security Swing Betting Odds Sharply

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's firing odds on prediction market Kalshi whipsawed from 42% to 19% within hours after conflicting signals from the White House. The volatility followed Bloomberg's report citing unnamed sources suggesting President TRUMP was considering Powell's dismissal, which triggered market reactions including dollar weakness and Treasury yield spikes.

The narrative shifted abruptly when Trump later told reporters he had no plans to fire Powell, calming financial markets. Earlier in the day, CBS News reported Trump had solicited Republican lawmakers' opinions about terminating Powell during an Oval Office meeting, with attendees interpreting his remarks as leaning toward dismissal.

This episode highlights how political uncertainty around central bank leadership can create immediate market disruptions. The rapid repricing on Kalshi demonstrates prediction markets' sensitivity to geopolitical developments affecting monetary policy stewardship.